Showing posts with label Abu Sayyaf. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Abu Sayyaf. Show all posts

Monday, November 19, 2007

Glorietta and Batasan Blasts: What's the real story?

A professor from Bicol University, Dr. Carlos Gegantoca, used to say: There are actually three sides in every story -- your side, my side and the correct side.

For this, while Glorietta Management and a number of legislators from Batasan believes that the blasts that happened in their yards are acts of terrorism, the Philippine National Police (PNP) maintains otherwise. For the Glorietta blast, the PNP offers the pozo negro theory -- that is, the blast was caused by methane from the septic tank -- while the Batasan blast is based on an assassination plot against Wahab Akbar.

But what could be the incentives why these groups differ in giving reasons as to the cause of the blast?

  • For Glorietta, accepting the idea that the blast may be caused by methane or faulty wiring simply means admitting that it had failed in its obligation to provide a safe and conducive place for shopping and leisure. That may be detrimental to their business and of course, to their reputation.
  • For the PNP, admitting that the cause of the blast in Makati is caused by terrorism simply shows that they have failed to fulfill their functions to maintain peace and security in their areas of jurisdiction. The same in Batasan.
  • Of course, arguing that the Batasan blast is a product of the Abu Sayyaf will simply mean additional intelligence funds (na nakakabobo) and an intensified operation against these people. Siyempre, if what Lacson said is true about the PNP money as a source of the Malacanang's "cash gifts", then more money will be made available for distribution to local officials, legislators and others. (Read the denial, though.)
  • For the government especially the Arroyo Administration, accepting the theory that the blasts in both Glorietta and Batasan are a product of terrorism simply shows that it had failed to fulfill its duty to provide security to the Filipinos as well as maintain peace and order. It also shows that the Human Security Act is nothing but a crap of paper with regards terrorism prevention and that the Administration is short sighted by being reactive rather than proactive. Sabagay, mantakin mo namang ang PNP leadership pa ang mag-utos na ibigay mo na lang ang cellphone mo sa snatcher instead of them (the PNP leadership) asking the help of the people for crime prevention activities.
  • For some congressmen who claim that they may also be the target of the bomber (like Luz Ilagan, et. al. of Gabriela party-list), the reason could be media mileage. Of course, that may also mean an additional sympathy vote in the succeeding elections.
Muddling the Story

Given the incentives to their sides, Tikboy asks: Ano ba talaga ang totoo, kuya?

To add to the complexities, ba't parehong non-terroristic theory ang angulo ng PNP both sa Batasan at sa Glorietta? This, despite the findings of an independent consultant in Glorietta that the blast in Makati could not be a product of methane and the common sense that an assassin will not make things difficult for himself by shooting a target in a place outside his control. (See also the article: Scientific Assessment on Methane.)

Lastly, and if it is indeed true, why is it that suspects were shot and/or apprehended almost immediately after the blast? This, to consider that the suspects of the murder of Mang Kiko were still at large, and the snatcher of the cellphone of Tikboy are still un-caught. Teka,si Rowena rin na na-rape mga isang dekada na, me balita na ba sa rapist niya? Eh yung nambugbog kay Boyong isang buwan na ang nakakaraan, nadakip na rin ba?

Hmmmnnn... Hmmmn?

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Total war policy: What's the logic?

According to a story, the Americans bombed its own ship in Cuba in order to participate in the second world war. Similarly, there is also an inkling that the 9-11 attack happened so that there would be a reason for the United States to attack Iraq and Afghanistan. Could this logic be also the reason for Gloria Arroyo's total war policy?

Tikboy happened to read the thesis of now-Senator Trillanes. In the thesis, Trillanes presented accounts of military officials selling arms to MILF and other Mindanao secessionists -- allegations which the government did not dare to peek into. Similarly, there are stories of military officials involved in selling guns to the New People's Army members. Again, nobody dared to lower their brows and look into it. The question is: Why?

Well, taking a frame from conspiracy theorists, it can be argued that the total war policy may be related to the non-investigation of the allegations on military personnel selling guns and ammunitions to enemies. For instance, why can't the few hundred strong Abu Sayyaf and NPA rebels or terrorists be eliminated by several tens (or even hundreds) of thousand strong soldiers of the government? Latest intelligence statistics show that NPAs, for instance, is only less than 10,000. Why is it hard to eliminate them?

Sabagay, kung alang giyera, what would be the use of our PMA graduates? And our soldiers? At paano pa ba makakahirit ng intelligence funds?

At kung alang giyera, how can Gloria Arroyo prove that she is a strong president? And that she is fit for a strong republic? Well, the father and son (Bush) used the wars in the middle east and won the elections. And so did Tony Blair. And all of them saved their fading popularity. Is Gloria also following their footprints? If so, paano na ngayon ang mga civilian casualties? Can somebody tell the bullets: Excuse me po, di po kami kalaban. Civilian lang?

Related readings: Only Abu Surrender will halt drive: DND
Arroyo: Minimize civilian casulties